As early voting kicks off in North Carolina, Republicans are feeling increasingly optimistic about their prospects, with Donald Trump leading the charge. At a rally Tuesday night, Trump confidently asserted that his Democratic rival, Vice President Kamala Harris, was “cratering in the polls” and claimed she was “sleeping” due to her lack of public campaign events that day.
Despite North Carolina’s polls remaining competitive, recent early voting data has given Republicans reason to feel more secure. GOP turnout has improved compared to 2020, when Trump initially discouraged early voting. This election cycle, Trump has been actively promoting early voting at rallies across key swing states, including North Carolina, and even announced he would cast his ballot early.
Republican nominee for lieutenant governor, Hal Weatherman, remarked on Trump’s push: “He’s trying to put the nail in the coffin,” adding that the former president’s focus on North Carolina is a critical part of his re-election strategy.
Black voter turnout, traditionally a strong Democratic demographic, has decreased compared to the same point in 2020, adding to Republican confidence. Meanwhile, Democrats caution against comparing turnout data to 2020, citing the pandemic’s impact on voter behavior that year. Nonetheless, Republican officials, including North Carolina GOP chair Jason Simmons, note that early voting performance has been strong for their party, with Republicans outperforming Democrats on two of the five days of early voting so far.
The stakes are high in North Carolina, a key battleground state where Trump has won twice before. While recent polling averages show a tight race, with Trump holding a slim lead over Harris, Democrats are working to mobilize suburban voters, college-educated voters, and communities of color. A Harris campaign official acknowledged Trump’s polling gains but pointed to an increase in early voting in critical areas such as Raleigh and Greensboro.
Trump, however, remained focused on Harris during his rally, taunting her campaign’s pace and criticizing her schedule. As the campaign enters its final stretch, both sides are battling for every vote, with North Carolina’s early voting data closely watched as an indicator of where the race may be headed.
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