Global Growth Slowdown

The International Monetary Fund yesterday lowered its 2025 growth outlook for the US and the global economy, citing heightened uncertainty and economic disruption caused by President Donald Trump’s sweeping new tariffs. 

The IMF (see overview) trimmed the 2025 US growth estimate to 1.8% from 2.7%, the largest reduction among the world's advanced economies, and cut the global growth forecast to 2.8% from 3.3%. The fund cautioned the trade policy climate and ongoing conflicts between the US and other tariff-hit countries are discouraging investment and spending. US inflation is now predicted to reach 3% this year, one percentage point higher than the IMF’s January projection, while the risk of a US recession has increased to 40%, up from 25% in October. 

Separately, the White House signaled trade tensions with China could cool, while businesses continued to announce investments in the US, including yogurt maker Chobani, which plans to invest at least $1.2B in New York, and Swiss pharma giant Roche, which aims to invest $50B over the next five years.